Fury vs Joshua Prediction: Who Wins in Cardiff?
Our Fury vs Joshua prediction: Tyson Fury to win on points, though Anthony Joshua’s power means a stoppage either way is a real possibility. Fury goes into the December 11 fight in Cardiff as the favourite, but neither man arrives at his peak. Here is our full breakdown of styles, form and the keys to victory.
| Tyson Fury | Anthony Joshua | |
|---|---|---|
| Record | 36-2-1 (25 KOs) | 30-4 (27 KOs) |
| Nickname | The Gypsy King | AJ |
| Age on fight night | 38 | 37 |
| Height | 6 ft 9 in (206 cm) | 6 ft 6 in (198 cm) |
| Reach | 85 in | 82 in |
| Born | Manchester, England | Watford, England |
Styles and Strengths
Why Tyson Fury Can Win
- Size and reach. At 6 ft 9 in with an 85-inch reach, Fury has three inches of height and reach on Joshua.
- Ring IQ. Fury controls distance with his jab, switches stance and leans on bigger men to tire them out.
- Experience in huge fights. He beat Wladimir Klitschko away from home, went 3-0-1 in four meetings with Deontay Wilder and Dillian Whyte combined, and took Oleksandr Usyk the distance twice.
Why Anthony Joshua Can Win
- Punching power. Joshua has 27 knockouts in 30 wins, a higher ratio than Fury.
- Athleticism. He is younger and more explosive, with a fast right hand and a strong uppercut on the inside.
- Momentum. He has stopped his last two opponents, Jake Paul and Kristian Prenga, inside six rounds.
Current Form: Both Men Have Question Marks
Fury has won twice in 2026 since coming out of retirement, outpointing Arslanbek Makhmudov in London and stopping Mariusz Wach in Thailand. Neither performance was vintage, and he is 38 with two defeats to Usyk behind him.
Joshua’s biggest concern is defence. He was knocked down repeatedly in his loss to Daniel Dubois in 2024 and was dropped twice in the first round by Prenga in July before rallying to win in round two. Against a fighter as tricky as Fury, those lapses could be costly.
Keys to Victory
| Fury wins if he… | Joshua wins if he… |
|---|---|
| Controls range with the jab and keeps the fight at long distance | Lands the right hand early before Fury finds his rhythm |
| Leans on Joshua in clinches to drain his energy | Works the body to slow Fury’s movement |
| Takes the fight into the second half | Stays composed and avoids the counter when he lets his hands go |
Fury vs Joshua Prediction: Our Pick
We expect Fury to use his size and jab to win most of the rounds and take a decision. Joshua is dangerous early, and if he catches Fury clean in the first four rounds he can end it. If the fight goes past the halfway mark, Fury’s experience and spoiling style should make the difference.
Prediction: Tyson Fury by decision.
This is an editorial opinion for fight fans, not betting advice. Curious about the money? See our purse guide. For fight times, see start times, read how to watch on Netflix, or go back to the main fight guide.
Fury vs Joshua Prediction FAQ
Who will win Fury vs Joshua?
Our prediction is Tyson Fury by decision. Fury’s size and jab should win most rounds, but Joshua’s power makes an upset stoppage possible.
Who is the favourite, Fury or Joshua?
Tyson Fury goes into the fight as the favourite.
Who has the longer reach, Fury or Joshua?
Fury has an 85-inch reach compared with Joshua’s 82 inches. He is also three inches taller at 6 ft 9 in.
Who has more knockouts, Fury or Joshua?
Joshua has 27 knockouts in 30 wins. Fury has 25 knockouts in 36 wins.
Have Fury and Joshua ever fought before?
Not as professionals. They sparred years ago when Joshua was still an amateur, and both still tell different stories about that session.
Every Fury vs Joshua prediction comes with risk because both men can end a fight with one punch. We will update this preview after fight week and the weigh-in.